Risk Forecasting helps teams spot risks before they become real problems. By imagining potential failures, surfacing warning signs, and agreeing on ownership, teams strengthen alignment, build trust and prevent issues early rather than react late.
How to
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Set the scene
Explain that the goal is to learn from imagined risks, not assign blame, and frame the session with a Hypothesis Statement, milestone or upcoming release so everyone is anchored to the same context.
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2. Surface potential failures
Ask everyone to write possible ways the system or initiative could fail and encourage inputs across adoption, governance, communication, design, engineering or delivery.
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3. Cluster and prioritise
Group similar risks into themes and vote on the risks that feel most likely or most damaging.
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Map mitigations
For each high-priority risk, define:
- what will prevent it
- how to detect it early
- how to reduce its impact if it occurs
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Assign ownership
Agree who will own each mitigation or action and how progress will be tracked. Document outcomes alongside your RAIDs, System Updates or Guidance Setup to keep visibility high.